Report on radicalisation, political revisionism, migration, and demography

Report on radicalisation, political revisionism, role of migration and demography as sources of threats in the EU’s neighbouring regions and related conditions for resilience. The report will reflect findings regarding the analysis of social roots of radicalism, as well as the interactions between non-state armed groups (Sunni, Shia, Kurdish and Christian), on the one hand, and states and regional powers, on the other. Examples include Jihadi groups and militias across the region, and their links with Russia and Iran. In this context, PSR will contribute analyses of surveys conducted in Israel and Palestine, and of the Arab Democracy Index. In the East, the focus will be on the origins, goals, forms, scope and effects of Russian revisionist policies towards the post-Soviet and post-communist countries. Implications of these policies on the post-Soviet countries, including those, which are struggling with so-called frozen conflicts, and the EU member states will be scrutinised. Case studies will focus on conflicts and the role of local actors in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Furthermore, the report will include findings regarding the analysis of demographic trends in the EU’s East and South as well as governance and border controls systems of individual countries, as a key issue, which may contribute to ALS/CO deteriorating into governance breakdown and violent conflict. As regards the South, WP4 will focus in particular on criminal networks for people trafficking across the Eastern Mediterranean route and the Central route via Libya. Special attention will be given to smuggling groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. WP4 will also look at the demographic structure of societies and the demographic boom in this region and analyse implications of these changes for the threats/resilience nexus in ALS/CO. Similar research will be conducted with regards to the EU’s East, where demographic trends are opposite than in the South, but both migration and demographic pressures on governance exist, as well as border security issues. Case studies will take a closer look at demographic trends, migration, and policy responses in this domain of the countries of the post-Soviet space, including Russia.