Validation of FULLSTACE with lake surface temperatures

An additional validation of the EUSTACE surface air temperature product FULLSTACE is proposed which tests and demonstrates an aspect of its scientific usefulness. A key use for the product is as a driver for local models of a range of environmental processes of interest, to explore how centennial-scale changes in SAT may have modified those processes. This task will validate the product for such an application, in this case, using the product to understand and estimate multi-decadal change in lake surface water temperature (LSWT), testing both the ability for the SAT product to drive changes in the decadal-scale mean LSWT (testing the long-term changes represented in the product) and decadal-scale changes in higher order statistics (testing the variability in the analysis over time). This will benefit the air temperature analysis team within the project, by giving feedback on the applicability of their product. A planned scientific paper will benefit the limnological community and alert them to the possible uses of the EUSTACE analysis, fostering rapid uptake of the products in by an active international science community. Task T3.3b (addition to T3.3) (UoR) Tune a simulation of LSWT dependence on surface air temperature using satellite-era LSWT observations for >500 lakes and the FULLSTACE over that period (prepare tuning using June trial version). Apply tuned model for entire EUSTACE period. Compare to 100 year lake time series (not used in creating the product, available for 2 lakes) and multi-decadal lake observations (available for about 20 lakes), testing the correlation of observations and simulation on a variety of timescales, and assessing the degree of temporal consistency of observed and simulated mean and variability statistics. On basis of results (1) interpret the usefulness of the product as a means to simulate LSWT change on centennial scales, and (2) consider what the simulations imply about changes in lakes through the 20th Century